Stuck Keys - Issue #32 - 2022

Mar-a-Lago Raid

This week's big news in politics is the raid on Trump's home in Mar-a-Lago. This is a developing situation, and I don't have any facts that you can't get from Reuters, but I do have some thoughts and predictions on the matter:

For Democrats, the Biden administration has largely failed to deliver on COVID, guns, Ukraine, or the economy. Roe was overturned on Biden's watch. There have been more COVID infections than ever, there is no assault weapons ban, Ukraine is basically a stalemate, and the economic situation at home is not great. There isn't much time before the mid-term elections, and there's open speculation about Biden even running in 2024.

So if you're a Democratic strategist, how do you square this circle and hold onto power? Pretty simple – if you can't be effective at helping your friends, you need to be effective at hurting your enemies. I think this is the strategic consideration we're seeing unfold regarding the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago.

Maybe Biden can't deliver on other areas, but if the Biden DOJ has the juice to convict Donald Trump of a crime, it will be a massive spiritual victory for the blue team. Even the prospect of a Donald Trump perp walk will get people out to vote.

Early Predictions:

• I don't think the FBI will find anything more serious in Trump's possession than what one would expect to see from any other former president or cabinet-level executive, but whatever he does possess will be hyped in the media as the crime of the century.
• The need to vote blue to 'Protect Our Democracy' and 'Hold Trump Accountable' will be a way to energize the Democrat voting base and incentivize voter turnout despite the Biden administration's underwhelming performance thus far.
• Trump is hated by the wine moms, teachers unions, HR ladies, and the greater blue hair diaspora, so giving liberal voters – particularly women and alt-men – the chance to feel powerful again after losing Roe will be an effective means of emotionally connecting with Dem voters.

I think the messaging will primarily be variations of these talking points:

• Vote Democrat, and we'll send Donald Trump to jail...
• Fortifying (rigging) the election is ethically justified because it means Donald Trump will go to jail...
• Be a Boss Bitch/RBG Queen/Trans Ally/Powerful Black Voice by voting to send Donald Trump to jail...

Public/Private Outreach:

• The messaging here will come from the usual suspects – late-night talk shows, The View, dating apps, rideshare and food delivery apps, TikTok women, etc.
• Social media will make it a bannable offense to suggest that Trump even deserves a jury trial, it will be against company policy at work to offer the same, etc.
• Fact-checkers will perpetually counter "dangerous narratives" about the prospect of FBI corruption and misconduct, insecure mail-in voting, crooked vote counts, etc.

Bonus Hypothesis:

If Dems get into truly dire straights, we might even see some talking points about the problem with a jury trial before they float the idea of sending Trump to Gitmo.

"After all – the US criminal justice system has always had a disparate impact against minorities and has always favored powerful white men; can we really trust jury members who don't have master's degrees in education or sociology to make such important decisions about Our Democracy?"

It's going to be hard to watch because it's a complete embrace of farce and outright open corruption, and the most annoying people on the planet are going to be begging for more every second.

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Beta Beretta

Gerald.Katz is opening a public beta for his Beretta 92/M9 pattern designs. Proof of parts kit is required. Find him on Twitter [Here]. I'm eager to see where this one goes.